Forecasting the wind power distribution for wind parks (WindFX)
Methods to forecast electricity production from wind farms in Austria for forecast horizons of 6 hours to 10 days are compared and evaluated for their potential operational installation. State-of-the-art methods documented in the literatureand new methods will be implemented. They use best-guess and ensemble predictions ofa numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and an archive of historical wind farm andNWP data spanning several years. Probabilistic methods will maximize the information content of the forecast.
Project
Project Leader:
Georg MAYR
Members:
Messner Jakob
Stauffer Reto
Funding Agencies:
Austrian Science Fund (FWF): L615-N10
Project Duration:
12/09/2013
Publications
2016
Messner, J. W. ; , G. J. Mayr , and A. Zeileis Heteroscedastic Censored and Truncated Regression with crch The R Journal
Messner, J. W. ; , G. J. Mayr , and A. Zeileis Non-homogeneous boosting for predictor selection in ensemble post-processing Working Papers in Economics and Statistics - University of Innsbruck
Stauffer, R. , J. W. ; Messner , N. ; Umlauf , and A. Zeileis Ensemble Post-Processing of Daily Precipitation Sums over Complex Terrain Using Censored High-Resolution Standardized Anomalies
Stauffer, R. , J. W. ; Messner , G. J. Mayr , N. ; Umlauf , and A. Zeileis Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Climatology over Complex Terrain Using a Censored Additive Regression Model Working Papers in Economics and Statistics - University of Innsbruck
2014
Messner, J. W. ; , A. Zeileis , J. Broecker , and G. J. Mayr Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression Wind Energy 17 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/we.1666
Messner, J. W. ; , G. J. Mayr , A. Zeileis , and D. S. Wilks Heteroscedastic Extended Logistic Regression for Postprocessing of Ensemble Guidance Monthly Weather Review 142 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1
Messner, J. W. ; , G. J. Mayr , D. S. Wilks , and A. Zeileis Extending Extended Logistic Regression: Extended vs. Separate vs. Ordered vs. Censored Monthly Weather Review http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00355.1
2013
Gisinger, S. , G. J. Mayr , J. W. ; Messner , and R. Stauffer Brief communication "Spatial and temporal variation of wind power at hub height over Europe" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20 http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/20/305/2013/npg-20-305-2013.pdf
2012
Drechsel, S. , G. J. Mayr , J. W. ; Messner , and R. Stauffer Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51