Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility (C3S-ISLS)

Synopsis

C3S-ISLS investigates shallow landslides under changing climate conditions on mountain slopes in Austria. Past landslide events are extracted from archives and remote sensing sources compared with meteorological data to identify weather situations with high probability of landslide occurrence. Landslide susceptibility is modeled for past events and for climate change scenarios in order to estimate increasing or decreasing landslide activity in future. The project aims to develop open source tools for highly automated data processing and to build up a comprehensible database on climate impact on shallow landslide susceptibility.

Fig. 1: Shallow landslides in Vorarlberg. Photos: BFW (2005), Zieher (2013)

Consortium Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck

• Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck
  • LiDAR Research Group
  • BoLa Research Group
  • Mountain Environmental Changes Group
• Austrian Research Centre for Forests
• Institute of Meteorology, Center for Global Change and Sustainablilty, University of Natural Resources and Applied Sciences, Vienna

Team

Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck

• Martin Rutzinger (PI)
• Thomas Zieher
• Clemens Geitner
• Gertraud Meißl

Austrian Research Centre for Forests

• Gerhard Markart
• Frank Perzl

Institute of Meteorology, BOKU

• Herbert Formayer
• David Leidinger

Associated Partners

• Division of Geotechnical and Tunnel Engineering, University of Innsbruck
• Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences

Background

Shallow landslides are a common geomorphological feature in the Alpine region often putting lives and infrastructure at risk. The term 'shallow landslides' typically refers to translational sliding movements of soil material (earth and debris), characterized by a pre-defined slip surface in a depth of up to 2.0 m (e.g. Cruden and Varnes 1996, Lateltin et al. 2005). In the past decades, parts of Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, were repeatedly affected by rainfall-triggered shallow landslides (Andrecs et al. 2002, Markart et al. 2007). The project C3S-ISLS strives at (i) documenting the spatio-temporal occurrence of shallow landslides in parts of Vorarlberg (WP2), (ii) testing and parameterizing of a spatially distributed, dynamic physically-based slope stability model (WP3, WP4), (iii) the analysis of landslide-triggering rainfall events (WP5) and (iv) the assessment of potential changes in slope stability as a response to climate change (WP6, see Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: Structure of the project C3S-ISLS.

For the period from the 1950s to 2013, more than 2,300 shallow landslides have been documented in a comprehensive shallow landslide inventory for three selected study areas in Vorarlberg (WP2). To be aware of the associated risks it is necessary to assess shallow landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk area-wide. Various techniques have been proposed for landslide susceptibility modelling/mapping (i.e. heuristic, statistically- and physically-based). Amongst them, physically-based landslide susceptibility models employ physical laws to assess slope stability. The required input parameter for a selected spatially distributed, dynamic physically-based slope stability model (TRIGRS 2.0, Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0; Baum et al. 2008, 2010, USGS 2016) were derived from laboratory tests conducted on collected geotechnical samples (WP3). Furthermore, the model’s predictive performance was tested in a field experiment (WP3, WP4). Based on the mapped landslides assigned to two triggering rainfall events (21/22 May 1999, 22/23 August 2005), the model’s key parameters were calibrated and validated (WP4). Spatio-temporal precipitation data was prepared and analysed for five landslide-triggering rainfall events (May 1999, August 2002, August 2005, July 2010 and June 2013; WP5). With the prepared precipitation maps, the identified best-performing model ensemble was used to assess shallow landslide susceptibility for current conditions (see Fig. 3) and to quantify potential changes in slope stability associated with increasing rainfall intensities. Combined with an empirical runout model, areas which could be affected by shallow landslides were identified (WP6).

Fig. 3: Results of the calibrated model ensemble for the triggering rainfall events in August 2005 (a) and May 1999 (b) in the Laternser valley (Zieher et al. 2017b).

Simulation results suggest a slight increase of areas affected by shallow landslides as a result of increased precipitation intensity. At the same time, the peak runoff increases markedly. This could indicate that the precipitation intensities of past landslide-triggering rainfall events were already above or close to the soil's infiltration capacity. However, a general increase in precipitation intensity could lead to an increase in the frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall events. Rainfall events which did not trigger any shallow landslides in the past may become trigger events under a changing climate in future. Further studies focussing on this aspect are necessary. The data and results of the C3S-ISLS project will provide a solid basis for this purpose.

Publications

Journal papers

Zieher, T.; Perzl, F.; Rössel, M.; Rutzinger, M.; Meißl, G.; Markart, G. & Geitner, C. 2016: A multi-annual landslide inventory for the assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility - Two test cases in Vorarlberg, Austria, Geomorphology 259, 40-54. DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.008

Zieher, T.; Markart, G.; Ottowitz, D.; Römer, A.; Rutzinger, M.; Meißl, G. & Geitner, C. 2017a: Water content dynamics at plot scale–comparison of time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography monitoring and pore pressure modelling, Journal of Hydrology 544, 195-209. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.019

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Schneider-Muntau, B.; Perzl, F.; Leidinger, D.; Formayer, H. & Geitner, C. 2017b: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically-basedslope stability model, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2017, 1-31. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-971-2017

Zieher, T.; Schneider-Muntau, B. & Mergili, M. (2017c): Are real-world shallow landslides reproducible by physically-based models? Four test cases in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Landslides 14/6, 2009 - 2023. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-017-0840-9

Presentations

Zieher, T. 2014: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a coupled hydrological/slope stability model (TRIGRS), EGU General Assembly 2014, 27 April – 02 May 2014, Vienna, Austria.

Zieher, T. 2015: Prerequisites for modelling shallow landslide susceptibility – experiences from the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg. 2nd general assembly of ecorisQ, 22 April 2015, Innsbruck, Austria.

Zieher, T. 2015: Geotechnical maps as input data for physically-based modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility. 5th EUGEO Congress on the Geography of Europe, 30 August – 02 September 2015, Budapest, Hungary.

Zieher, T. 2016: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility – the C3S-ISLS Project. 17. Österreichischer Klimatag: Aktuelle Klimaforschung in Österreich, 06 – 08 April 2016, Graz, Austria.

Zieher, T. 2016: Data requirements for the assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. 12th International Symposium on Landslides (ISL), 12 – 19 June 2016, Neapel, Italy.

Zieher, T. 2017: Modellierung flachgründiger Rutschungen am Beispiel des Laternsertals (Vorarlberg) – Voraussetzungen, Limitationen und Potenziale. Innsbrucker Hofburggespräche, 06.04.2017, Innsbruck, Austria.

The project's final results were presented to an audience of local experts and interested practitioners at the Innsbrucker Hofburggespräche („Beiträge von Hydrogeologie und Untergrunderkundung zur Naturgefahrenanalyse und -Prävention“) in the Congress Innsbruck. The end report can be downloaded here.

Poster

Rutzinger, M.; Zieher, T.; Vetter, M.; Geitner, C.; Meißl, G.; Perzl, F.; Markart, G. & Formayer, H. 2013: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility - a concept. CHAT Mountain Days. 12 – 13 June 2013, Mittersill, Austria.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Vetter, M.; Geitner, C.; Meißl, G.; Perzl, F.; Markart, G. & Formayer, H. 2014: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility – the project’s research plan. 15. Österreichischer Klimatag, 02 – 04 April 2014, Innsbruck, Austria.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M. & Geitner, C. 2015: Assessing the impact of input data quality on the modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility. EGU General Assembly 2015, 12 – 17 April 2015, Vienna, Austria.

Zieher, T., Meissl, G.; Rutzinger, M. & Geitner, C. 2016: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility - the C3S-ISLS Project. Jahrestagung der Österreichischen Forschungsgruppe für Geomorphologie und Umweltwandel, 23 September 2016, Innsbruck, Austria.

Kamps, M.; Seijmonsbergen; A.C.; Rutzinger, M. & Zieher T. 2016: Assessment of the interaction of land-cover change on shallow landslide occurrence: an automated object-based approach. GEOBIA, 14 – 16 September 2016, Enschede, The Netherlands.

Conference proceedings (full paper)

Zieher, T.; Perzl, F.; Gruber, F.; Rutzinger, M.; Meißl, G. & Geitner, C. 2016b: Data requirements for the assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. In: Landslides and Engineered Slopes. Experience, Theory and Practice, CRC Press, pp. 2139-2146. DOI: 10.1201/b21520-270

Kamps, M.; Seijmonsbergen; A.C.; Rutzinger, M. & Zieher T. 2016: Assessment of the interaction of land-cover change on shallow landslide occurrence: an automated object-based approach. In: Proceedings of the GEOBIA 2016: Solutions and Synergies, 14 – 16 September 2016, Enschede, The Netherlands.

Conference proceedings (Abstract)

Rutzinger, M.; Zieher, T.; Vetter, M.; Geitner, C.; Meißl, G.; Perzl, F.; Markart, G. & Formayer, H. 2013: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility - a concept. In: Proceedings of the CHAT Mountain Days. 12 – 13 June 2013, Mittersill, Austria.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Vetter, M.; Geitner, C.; Meißl, G.; Perzl, F.; Markart, G. & Formayer, H. 2014: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility – the project’s research plan, In: Tagungsband des 15. Österreichischen Klimatags, pp. 141. 02 – 04 April 2014, Innsbruck, Austria.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Perzl, F. & Meißl, G. 2014: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a coupled hydrological/slope stability model (TRIGRS), In: Geophysical Research Abstracts 16, No. 8110.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M. & Geitner, C. 2015: Assessing the impact of input data quality on the modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts 17, No. 13005.

Zieher, T., Rutzinger, M.; Meißl, G.; Geitner, C. & Seijmonsbergen, A. 2015: Geotechnical maps as input data for physically-based modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility. Proceedings of the 5th EUGEO Congress on the Geography of Europe, 30 August – 02 September 2015, Budapest, Hungary.

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Meißl, G.; Geitner, C.; Perzl, F.; Markart, G. & Formayer, H. 2016: Climate induced system status changes at slopes and their impact on shallow landslide susceptibility – the C3S-ISLS Project. In: Schwarzl, I.; Kolar, J.; Schöner, W.; Formayer, H.; Steininger, K.; Wolkinger, B. et al.: Tagungsband 17. Klimatag. Aktuelle Klimaforschung in Österreich, pp. 90-91. 06 – 08 April 2016. Vienna: Climate Change Centre Austria (CCCA).

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