In the current context of climate change, high alpine rock slopes and surficial deposits are affected by geomorphological processes whose evolution is partly conditioned by warming permafrost. This degradation directly implies a rising risk of destabilization for infrastructure in high mountain areas (e.g. huts or ski lifts). In this study, we aim to assess the level of risk of destabilization for infrastructure built on permafrost in the French Alps and to discuss the present adaptation strategies developed by stakeholders. The data used correspond to a new inventory of all the high mountain infrastructure in the French Alps, obtained from several data layers - including a recently developed map of Potential Thawing Permafrost - analysed within a Geographic Information System. We updated a destabilization risk index previously developed to identify and rank infrastructure at risk with a hazard characterisation and a vulnerability diagnosis (vulnerability s.s. and stakes), based on newly available data.

The most at risk infrastructure according to this new risk index is compared with the adaptation strategies of the local stakeholders (managers, scientists) to mitigate geotechnical instabilities and/or study the hazard evolution in the present context of climate change. Two main adaptations strategies can be distinguished and will be detailed with examples: (1) a proactive resilience focussing on hazard evolution with sometimes preventive geotechnical solutions, climate projections or monitoring of the permafrost initiated by scientists (e.g. monitoring of the thermal state of the permafrost); (2) reactive resilience with different response strategies in the short/medium term by ski-resort managers to repair the infrastructure after a destabilization (e.g. adjustment, adaptation and consolidation, reconstruction or even displacement).

 Mountain forests represent close to one fourth of the global forest cover. They play key roles in the preservation of biodiversity, and in natural hazard prevention. However, climate change is driving rapid transformation of mountain forests worldwide. Indeed, over the past two decades, extensive tree mortality caused by a combination of stressors like high temperatures, dry conditions and insect and pathogen outbreaks has been documented. Climate change scenarios predict continued rising temperatures and an increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes. Therefore, forest diebacks are expected to become more widespread, frequent and severe. Consequently, the related presence of large numbers of deadwood and a change in tree species composition will have an impact on various forest stakeholders and may lead to local social conflicts and/or economic loss.

The qualitative part of the multidisciplinary Belmont-Forum project CLIMTREE carried out semi-structured in-depth interviews with forest stakeholders in mountain forests of France (Pyrenees), Germany (Bavarian Forest) and China (Yunnan). The aims were to understand how different types of stakeholders (e.g. state forests, private forest owners, NGOs, residents) perceive climate change and forest dieback in their daily practices. The questions what kind of threats are perceived as most hazardous and which adaptation models are favored were of special interest. Results of all case studies show that forest stakeholders are aware of climate change and already observed forest dieback. However, cause-effect relationships were not always clear. Adaptation models and the willingness to change forest practices in the course of climate change varied between countries. Synthesizing the perception and adaptation behavior into stakeholder typologies allow a comprehensive cross-country comparison for the first time providing meaningful information for the future of mountain forests.

Under current climate change and future scenarios, the mountain cryosphere will face multiple risks. To avoid losses and damages due to glacier retreat we need comprehensive risk assessments that focus on multiple risks and consequences of climatic change to societies. Glacier shrinkage will lead to cascading impacts on downstream systems and profoundly influence the natural and human environment. This will lead to major changes to river flow regimes, altered provision of water resources to human society, reorganization of the regulatory processes that shape water quality and geohazards, as well as cultural changes associated with tourism, landscape character, and identity. To address these challenges, we analyze impacts from mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage, a conceptual mechanism of international climate policy that tries to address negative consequences of climate change. To successfully adapt we need to know the consequences and appropriately implement measurements to avoid negative impacts. Here, we specifically analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake growth and formation and ensuing floods, hydrological effects and impacts on people and economy – now and under future scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) of the changing cryosphere in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. To do so, we use various different methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) modelling and hydrologic modelling to particularly analyze losses and damages related to cryospheric changes. GLOFs for example can cause loss of life, major damage to assets, or damage of livelihoods, but are not necessarily seen as the highest risk of glacier retreat. We argue that using the mechanism of Loss and Damage allows us to identify the impacts of climate change on the mountain cryosphere cascading down to mountain communities and beyond, and hence, highlight the areas that need attention for comprehensive climate risk assessments and adaptation.

The city of Merano/Meran in South Tyrol has approximately 40.000 inhabitants and is located in the Adige Valley, in the middle of the Alps on 325 m a.s.l., surrounded by mountains up to 3.000 m a.s.l. Due to its topographic position, it has micro-climatic peculiarities. Politicians are concerned of the threats emerging from climate change. Thus, they have signed the Covenant of Mayors, a European network for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions, whereby they committed the city itself to design an adaptation plan (SECAP). Therein the city seeks for a climate risk assessment that informs and supports planning, monitoring and evaluation features that enable tailor made adaptation processes for the city.

Accordingly, we from the research institution Eurac Research are trying to feed the adaptation planning process with results from trend scenarios, like global warming scenarios and assumptions on impacts, based on the South Tyrolean Report on Climate Change, published in 2018. Based on these findings, we are identifying and assessing the most relevant climate risks and vulnerabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. We are involving local actors to design specific indicators for their city, which are appropriate for setting up a sound local monitoring system. This process considers an integrated approach that includes various sectors like buildings, transport, energy, water, land use, agriculture and forestry, environment and biological diversity, but also health, civil protection and tourism.

The contribution to the session aims to give an input on the experiences and findings from applying an integrated climate risk assessment. With our experiences from this explorative case study to elaborate a climate adaptation plan for Merano/Meran, we can deliver in the workshop a valuable input for the discussion on mountain specific climate risk assessment and which characteristics of the procedure is mainly mountain-related.

In the Tropical Andes, year-round streamflow from glaciers buffers seasonal and local water scarcity and discharge variability. Therefore, this mountain region is most vulnerable to impacts from glacier shrinkage. In the Santa River basin, Peru, the Cordillera Blanca glaciers have lost about 38% of its area between 1962 and 2016 to about 450 km². The vanishing of large ice bodies has serious implications for timing and quantity of upstream-downstream water use, which at the same time is under strong transformation.

While a growing number of research in the Santa and other tropical basins covers topics of impacts from climate change and glacier shrinkage on river hydrology, little progress has been made so far to quantify water demand, related trends and to integrate potential future trajectories of socioeconomic development in hydrological models. In this context, we are developing an integrative hydrological impact model at unprecedented scales, analyzing current (1981-2016) and future (2030-2100) water availability at monthly scale. IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used for future glacier and water volume evolution, providing a broad range of the magnitude of estimated future water volume released due to deglaciation effects. Resulting changes in water availability are then converted into potential financial and socio-economic impacts and losses through a coupled economic assessment for the main sectors of water use (agriculture, domestic use and hydropower). Additionally, the damage potential of glacial lake outburst floods under current and future conditions is considered. Concluding, the feasibility of measures for hydro-economic risk reduction is discussed.

Our research represents an important progress in assessing hydrology, economy and climate change aspects in a context of increasing water scarcity, lack of data and high uncertainties. It also indicates in monetary terms the effect of glacier retreat and builds an important basis for decision making, water resources planning and climate change adaptation.

In December 2018 the new climate change scenarios CH2018 were published by the swiss confederation and partner institutions. Effects of climate change such as temperature increase, longer dry periods in summer, and heavy precipitation may occur more frequently. According to these scenarios and to the SREX-report (IPCC, 2012), changes in the dynamics of gravitational processes in alpine regions can be expected. Sensitivity studies considering temperature rise and changes of precipitation patterns suggest that frequency and intensity of gravity driven processes such as snow avalanches, debris flow, rock fall and landslides will likely change. Socio-economic trends will affect land use, use of infrastructure, agriculture and energy production and will alter the damage potential in the future. Therefore, a change of risk caused by the combination of socio-economic and climate change factors can be anticipated through the end of the century. In order to cope with these changes, the affected population and authorities in alpine regions depend on predictions of where, when and to which extent changes are to expect. In 2018, the research programme “Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements” was launched at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL. Within this programme, we develop a framework to assess risk changes caused by climate and socio-economic scenarios. As a first step, we model risk changes in a region in central Switzerland with the RAMMS::LSHM (Large Scale Hazard Mapping) software, taking into account different snow avalanche scenarios. We discuss how such a tool could contribute to decision support for adapting to climate and socioeconomic changes in alpine regions.

Avalanches are one of the main natural hazards affecting the Alps. Snow movement have modified mountain ecosystems over the centuries, shaping mountain slopes and altering their vegetation. In the last century, however, due to the expansion of human settlements and the growth of winter tourism in mountainous areas, avalanche management has become a matter of primary importance for the local administrations. The most common mitigation measures adopted so far are snow nets or snow fences, which prevent the detachment of the snow pack in the avalanche starting zones. In relation to their construction above or under the tree line, the available structures can be divided in permanent steel structures and temporary wooden structures, used where the vegetation is expected to replace the stabilising function of the structures over time.

Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess whether the rising of the treeline, caused by the abandonment of pastures and climate change, can influence the economic convenience of building permanent or temporary protective structures. The study area was located in the Aosta Valley (Italy), where two historical avalanches were mapped and steel snow fences have been placed in the starting zone of the two avalanches. First, field measurement to study the response of the vegetation to the stabilising effect of the fences against snow movement were carried out, then we investigated whether the expected rising treeline could assume a relevant protective role over the years. Finally, an economic analysis was carried out to measure such protection service, comparing the construction, maintenance and removal costs of the two protective structures.

The result of study represent a valuable example of positive adaptation to the effects of climate change and can provide local administrations of valuable information when choosing between different protection strategies against avalanches, directing them to the most effective and convenient solution.

In this contribution we will present and discuss results from a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) for a mountainous district in Northern Tajikistan conducted for the German “Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit” (GIZ). The main objectives were a) to identify the most important climate and climate change related risks and the contribution of natural and socio-economic factors and b) to understand the benefits and limitations of quantitative as well as qualitative CRVA approaches in the context of a such a local assessment.

The method followed an established concept of a CRVA based on so-called impact chains and the IPCC AR5 approach of climate risks as published in the GIZ “Vulnerability Sourcebook” and several supplements. A core aspect of the assessment methodology is the integration of quantitative and qualitative information in a participatory approach (workshops, expert consultations).

Three main climate risks were identified to be relevant in the area under consideration:

- Risk of damage to houses, roads, bridges, riverbank enforcement structures, other infrastructure (irrigation, electric grid), agricultural fields and livestock due to mudflows triggered by heavy rain events.

- Risk of loss of agricultural yield, decreased crop quality, decreased grassland and livestock productivity, soil salinity, lack of drinking water due to droughts and high temperatures

- Risk of damage of houses (roofs), infrastructure (electricity lines), trees (orchards), agricultural fields (soil erosion, damage to seedlings) and health (dust, trauma) due to strong wind.

The general concept proved to be well applicable and suitable for the task as the key climate risks and contributing factors elaborated could be confirmed by local experts. We also learned that including qualitative data, such as the knowledge of local stakeholders and expert judgements, even if subject to uncertainty and bias, is essential especially in data poor environments such as Central Asia.

To achieve a comprehensive risk assessment of a study area, two main elements are required: data on locations and type of natural hazard processes, and the determination of the exposed and vulnerable assets they threat. However, acquiring this information within a comparably short time period can be challenging: on the one hand, scientific research is not always able to provide ready-to-use data of the required quality on the natural hazard and risk situation, also due to the inherent uncertainties of future developments. If existing studies reveal to be insufficient in the information they provide, newly-initiated research can be needed, which is known to be time and resource demanding.

On the other hand, information on hazards and elements at risk are often retained by local stakeholders and experts. Through their involvement in risk assessment, qualitative information and knowledge on local particularities can be rapidly made available. However, the level of knowledge and awareness differs amongst stakeholders. Moreover, qualitative information acquired through a participatory process needs to be systematically put together to be linked and possibly integrated with quantitative data obtained from existing databases and models.

These challenges have also become evident within the framework of the Interreg Alpine Space project GreenRisk4Alps.

Consequently, a holistic approach is required, not only to select suitable stakeholders to involve but also to ask the right questions to obtain concise but, at the same time, inclusive answers. This approach, that we can call “Rapid Risk Appraisal”, serves to obtain a general risk profile for a study area. The participatory process can serve as a starting point for a more in-depth analysis, providing also a more specific direction in which to focus research. Once the most relevant risks are identified through stakeholder involvement, more in-depth analyses can be carried out on the cause-effects relationships using impact chains.

Integrating qualitative and quantitative data from stakeholders and modelling - The integrated risk assessment methodology used for the project “GreenRisk4Alps”

This poster presents the integrated risk assessment methodology used in the GreenRisk4Alps (GR4A) project. GR4A is an Interreg Alpine Space project aimed at integrating ecosystem-based solutions into risk reduction strategies in the Alpine area. In order to understand the benefits associated with ecosystem-based solutions (e.g. protection forests), natural hazards, elements at risk and the possible effects of protective measures need to be studied encompassing a risk assessment process.

The methodological framework used in the GR4A project follows a stepwise approach that allows for different depths of analysis. Its objective is to integrate qualitative information collected from stakeholders with data obtained from hazards modelling. The process starts with a “Rapid Risk Appraisal”: a participatory process for stakeholders which provides a quick and general overview of the main perceived risks. The developed risk profile constitutes the basis for the subsequent development of “impact chains”, a tool that helps to elaborate cause-effect relationships through the determination of hazards, intermediate impacts, vulnerability and exposure of the system. Such a schematic representation of the system serves as a basis for further and more detailed analysis and it allows to identify entry points for risk reduction measures. Once interrelations and feedbacks are visible, it is envisaged to perform a more detailed and spatially explicit assessment incorporating quantitative data.

Major challenges that emerged referred to finding the balance between rapidness of information acquisition and the explanatory power of subsequent results. Furthermore, the integration and visualisation of data and results was experienced to be a critical task.

Climate change is already presenting its impacts and affecting the hydrogeological risk in mountain regions. In particular, in our work experience in the elaboration of hydrogeological hazard maps in the Trentino-Alto Adige region, we have realised the importance of the correct identification and risk assessment for watercourses with very small catchments (area < 1 km²) that become active only with very intense precipitation. This type of watercourses puts the population living downstream at a high risk because: watercourses and riverbeds are basically non-existent, as they are dry for almost all the time; there are often almost no information on maps and on past hydrogeological events for these watercourses; debris flows generally are the hydrogeological processes that trigger into these small water catchments; the valley floor areas downstream have often been urbanised; the population living in the downstream areas has no perception of the risk.

Identifying these watercourses and assessing their risk is therefore extremely important.

In our work experience we have encountered several of these cases and have developed a specific methodology (consisting in GIS analysis and field surveys) to identify this type of watercourses and assess their hydraulic risk. In particular, among others, we had some cases in the city of Bolzano and one in Trentino region. In all these cases, we identified the watercourses and mapped their hydraulic hazards. Afterwards, heavy rain events activated the watercourses we had previously identified, and triggered debris flow processes. In particular, the debris flow occurred in Trentino in October 2018 caused serious damages to the downstream buildings and we are currently planning and implementing the protection measures.

Climate change is significantly rising the hydrogeological risk for these small watercourses, as the higher intensity of precipitation increases the probability of activation of debris flow, but quantifying this impact is still quite difficult.

Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities.
While shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water, current water demand for economic activities still rely on large quantity of water.
The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across interdependent sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.
This study shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is a powerful tool applied to evaluate the multiple impacts coming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).
The SDM developed for the Noce catchment represents an innovative multi-risk tool, combining outputs from physically based models and probabilistic assessments of water flows. Moreover, this study simulated the water demand from three main sectors relying on the same resource: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.
Results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. By doing so, it has been possible to explore future unsustainable conditions of water supply and demand. Finally, SDM can be used to identify possible adaptation strategies (e.g. water pricing, drip irrigation and regulation) and integrate decision policies scenarios to tackle climate-related water scarcity.

socio-economic and biophysical systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change. mountain areas experience higher temperature increases than plains and the impacts of climate change are therefore more intense. In particular, for the Moroccan Middle Atlas, impacts are already observed in all natural and socio-economic sectors, such as the accelerated disappearance of sensitive ecosystems and iconographic elements such as glaciers; alteration of the life cycle of many species, including endemic species; the impact of climate change on natural hazards, tourism-related activities, agriculture or other impacts observed in the hydrological cycle. Climate change is positioning itself as an additional stress factor that aggravates already existing problems on the mountain territory, such as depopulation, land use changes or lack of generational change in the primary sector. Throughout this presentation I consider the fight against climate change and adaptation to its impacts as a transversal instrument offering a multitude of opportunities to meet the challenges of the Middle Atlas, which are also global challenges.

The objectives of this presentation are:

• Update the scientific knowledge bases on impacts and vulnerability of the Middle Atlas territory in the face of climate change, in the main biophysical and socio-economic sectors.
• To agree, from a scientific point of view, on the main issues facing the Middle Atlas in terms of climate change.
• Propose sectoral recommendations for adaptation to climate change in the context of global warming.

Projects funded by the UK Royal Society have enabled participatory-action research in the Kumaon Himalaya in Nainital district of Uttarakhand state of India. Working with partners from local universities and NGO’s, researchers from Newcastle University have engaged with community members, organisations and extension agents from government technical agencies to characterise complex agro-forestry production systems in steep ‘middle mountain’ (elevation 1000m to 2500m asl) headwaters catchments. These systems are underpinned by community-forest management and supported by government funding of village and household/farm-scale infrastructure. Thus constructive working relationships between local communities and government agencies are essential for developing sustainable resilience to climate variability and change. As a capacity building initiative to increase community-level quantitative understanding/awareness of climate variability ‘citizen science’ weather monitoring has been initiated in households nominated by participating case study ‘panchayats’. This is intended to empower community representatives in their interactions with government agencies and district and state-level politicians. A local NGO has also partnered with local communities to monitor flow rates of springs which are essential water sources, especially in the pre-monsoon dry season. Research activities have also focused on mapping and inventorying of resource management units and distributed infrastructure to enable evidence-based assessment of current resilience to climate-related hazards. This is a prerequisite for community deliberations on prioritising actions to improve resilience and increase adaptive capacity.

The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) (Bonn / Germany) and Eurac Research (Bolzano / Italy) have developed a new joint research programme. The GLOBAL MOUNTAIN SAFEGUARD RESEARCH (GLOMOS) programme is attributed to the official mandate of the UN University “to contribute, through collaborative research and education, to efforts to resolve the pressing global problems of human survival, development and welfare…”.

Based on this UN mandate, and in combination with the mountain competency of Eurac Research, GLOMOS envisions the enhancement of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA) and emergency response preparedness (ERP) in global mountain regions. In close collaboration with already existing entities and mechanisms GLOMOS seeks to increase the resilience of mountain communities towards disaster risks, to protect the biological and cultural diversity, and to support the sustainable development of these highly sensitive social-ecological systems. GLOMOS seeks to serve as a gateway between science and the global UN conventions and frameworks: the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), the Paris Climate Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals, the New Urban Agenda, the framework for Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN), and the Agenda for Humanity.

During an international conference (17 to 19 October 2018), GLOMOS brought together more than hundred experts from a variety of sectors including United Nations agencies, academy, governments, NGOs and private sector to discuss “Emerging Risks and Future Challenges for Mountain regions worldwide”. Objectives of the conference comprised firstly the identification of adequate approaches to turn scientific knowledge into action, and secondly, the promotion of guidelines and recommendations for decision makers and planners to foster advocacy for mountain-specific topics and strengthen the research and educational capacities of international partner institutions, scientists and practitioners at global scale.

This poster introduces the GLOMOS programme and gives a summary of the conference results.